Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 07 2025 17:32:31 ACUS02 KWNS 071731 SWODY2 SPC AC 071730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ....Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ....Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ....Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ...Grams.. 08/07/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .