Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 07 2025 16:16:10

ACUS01 KWNS 071615
SWODY1
SPC AC 071614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight
across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on
North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and
significant severe gusts are possible.

....Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN...
A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region
today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the
northern Great Basin into MT/ND.  One feature is currently over
eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across
that region.  Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal
lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of
central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs.  Backed
low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will
promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts.  These storms
could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN.

Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread
the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the
development of scattered strong storms.  This activity should
intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass
across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting
upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening.  As these
storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there
remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along
with large hail and a tornado or two.  Some guidance suggests the
MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of
western/central MN.

...Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025

$$

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