Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 07 2025 01:01:36 ACUS01 KWNS 070101 SWODY1 SPC AC 070059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST MN... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota, this evening into late tonight. ....Eastern WY/southeast MT into western/central SD/northwest NE... A favorable conditional environment remains in place this evening from eastern WY/far southeast MT into western SD/northwest NE, with moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 40-50 kt. However, large-scale ascent is generally weak, and storms that developed across far eastern WY have been very isolated and relatively slow to intensify. A severe storm or two remains possible through the evening, with a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts. Isolated strong to severe storm development also cannot be ruled out this evening across central SD, in the vicinity of diffuse surface boundary. ....Northern MN... Strong storms have developed this evening across southeast MB, in the vicinity of a surface trough. Stronger large-scale ascent and greater storm coverage are expected to remain north of the international border, but development of an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out through dusk across northwest MN, within a moderately buoyant environment. ....Eastern NE/SD into IA/northern MO/northeast KS late tonight... Elevated convection may develop late tonight from eastern NE/western IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, within a low-level warm advection regime. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates, and modestly favorable effective shear could support at least transient storm organization. One or two southeastward-moving clusters may develop overnight within this regime, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to locally damaging gusts. ....Central/eastern MT into western ND late tonight... Elevated convection may increase overnight from central into northeast MT, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Moisture and elevated buoyancy will initially be modest, though small hail and gusty winds could accompany these storms overnight. There is some potential for this convection to intercept greater moisture/instability across northeast MT very late in the period, though at this time it appears that organized-severe potential may remain limited until near/after 12Z. ...Dean.. 08/07/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .