Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 07 2025 00:03:21 AWUS01 KWNH 070002 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-070500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0879 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern and Southeast NC...Grand Strand of SC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 070000Z - 070500Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving shower and thunderstorm activity will likely continue through the evening hours across portions of eastern and southeast NC into the SC Grand Strand. This coupled with high rainfall rates will maintain a concern for areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite along with radar data shows a relatively compact vort center and associated mid-level trough crossing the southern Mid-Atlantic region. This continues to focus areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across southeast NC and down into the SC Grand Strand. The more concentrated activity over the last couple of hours has been focused from near Kinston down to west of Wilmington, with additional focused activity also now moving through the North Myrtle Beach vicinity. A combination of shortwave dynamics and right-entrance region upper jet dynamics with proximity of a surface low center near the SC/NC border and an inverted trough extending north-northeast from it has provided a persistent array of forcing over the last several hours. This forcing coupled with the pooling of a moderately unstable and very moist airmass along and just inland of the Atlantic Coast has allowed convection to persist. This will likely help maintain a semi-organized convective threat for at least the balance of the evening for coastal areas and portions of the interior. MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg across far southeast NC in close proximity to the low center, and this is also where low-level moisture convergence is maximized with some northward extent of this noted along the inverted trough axis over eastern NC. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour will still be possible at least in the near-term with the stronger areas of convection close to the low center, and some of this activity will likely impact the Brunswick to Wilmington, NC corridor within the next couple of hours. The latest HRRR guidance suggests convection will weaken later this evening as the overall instability foot print diminishes, but the cell-motions of the current activity will remain quite slow, and thus some additional rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches cannot be ruled out. The additional rains will maintain a concern for flash flooding which will include a threat for urban flooding impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-lwbXbqeJix6lKu7EMf_m4EIhcEgQlOxZamUi96Obn0Smxrc8S8m0O8WLN1P6fZusp1L= HpYHW-9WOqriiYu2kYYF9TQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 35737756 35647680 34947673 34327750 33857788=20 33707862 33067934 33367941 34117886 35217836=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .