Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 06 2025 19:28:39 ACUS03 KWNS 061928 SWODY3 SPC AC 061927 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ....North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ...Grams.. 08/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .