Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 06 2025 18:04:58 AWUS01 KWNH 061804 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-070000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0878 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 203 PM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the SC Lowcountry...Central and Eastern NC...Southeast VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 061803Z - 070000Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving and very efficient shower activity with high rainfall rates will likely continue through the afternoon and early evening hours from central NC through southeast VA. New areas of heavier shower and thunderstorm activity will impact eastern NC and the SC Lowcountry by later this afternoon. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a well-defined shortwave trough lifting gradually northeastward up across the southern Mid-Atlantic region which has been fostering broken coverage of very efficient shower activity across large areas of central to northeast NC and into southeast VA. A combination of right-entrance region upper jet dynamics and frontogenetical ascent along with a nose of modest elevated instability is expected to continue to focus an axis of heavy showers across central NC up into southeast VA through the afternoon and early evening hours. Much of this activity is focusing along and west of a strong inverted trough/coastal front that has evolved well inland across eastern NC. However, areas of eastern NC to the east of this surface boundary along with areas farther south down into the SC Lowcountry where there is an area of low pressure noted are expected to see an uptick in surface-based instability over the next few hours from stronger solar insolation. MLCAPE values have increased to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and this coupled with some of the aforementioned upper jet support and stronger low-level moisture convergence should yield a more organized convective threat over the next several hours with increasing coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour are expected with the additional areas of convection this afternoon and into the early evening hours. A consensus of the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance suggests the potential for an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain locally going through 00Z (8PM EDT) with the heaviest rains generally across areas of eastern NC and to some extent into northeast SC inland of the coast. These additional rains are likely to promote additional areas of flash flooding over the next several hours, and this will include a threat for locally considerable urban flash flooding impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!62u41CQncM9jMbIw51deCvJKNqZK6UuV7p2dlsy6uj5Ok4Gm4jAjwZ4we2SL6btFXS_t= FpWi8yIpBUSBreqsvkOU1uY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 37257617 36777562 36047550 35257592 34277709=20 33577861 32837930 32707979 32918039 33748039=20 35207994 36517862 37217717=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .