Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 06 2025 05:17:12 ACUS01 KWNS 060515 SWODY1 SPC AC 060513 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ....Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ...Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .