Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 06 2025 07:34:10

AWUS01 KWNH 060734
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-061132-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Areas affected...upstate South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and
western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060732Z - 061132Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly northeastward
across the discussion area over the next 4-5 hours or so.  Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...Shower/thunderstorm activity has been persistent
along an axis extending from near Athens to near Spartanburg this
morning.  The convection has persisted in response to focused
ascent associated with an upstream mid-level wave entering western
Georgia.  Just enough instability (i.e., 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE)
exists to support updrafts.  However, the updrafts are also
embedded in a moist airmass characterized by 2 inch PW values that
supports efficient rainfall rates.  Over the past hour or so,
areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates have been estimated per MRMS in
eastern GA/upstate SC - embedded within a broader axis of 0.5+
inch/hr rates in that same region.  Furthermore, the area remains
wet from prior rainfall, with 2-5 inch rainfall totals over the
past 24 hours resulting in locally sensitive ground conditions
that can promote excessive runoff.

The main synoptic impetus for heavy rainfall (the upstream
mid-level wave) will only slowly cross the region from west to
east this morning, with continued, focused ascent resulting in
several areas of convection.  Flash flooding is possible,
especially in sensitive/low-lying areas and near riverine areas
that are already experiencing ongoing flooding.  This risk should
persist through at least 11Z/7a EDT across the Carolinas portion
of the discussion area and should slowly end from west to east
across Georgia.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4NI-z4Ivam7ruJvSVQ0mTNnRky8IF-VWoiUqkozMDYEXoRiyolRTIePa-mwJTz4KS7WB=
IJgfVWPDfeps22oQAy0q6u8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36157948 35267933 34058090 32828332 33508400=20
            34518351 35918096=20

=3D =3D =3D
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