Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 06 2025 00:47:18

ACUS01 KWNS 060047
SWODY1
SPC AC 060045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large
hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the
evening/early overnight.

....Northern Plains Vicinity...

Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several
hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold
front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from
around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the
past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred.
Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast
ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km
lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical
accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse
rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE
across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear
also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust
convection can evolve behind the ND cluster.

Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts
of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However,
stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at
least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only
been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area
(WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened.
Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained.

...Leitman.. 08/06/2025

$$

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