Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 22:28:51 AWUS01 KWNH 052227 FFGMPD MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060425- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0874 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 625 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...Central to Southeast ND...Northeast SD...West-Central MN Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 052225Z - 060425Z SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will be organizing further and expanding in coverage over the next few hours. Some scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely by late evening from heavy rainfall totals and locally sensitive antecedent conditions. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suites shows a well-defined upper-level trough and attendant frontal system ejecting east across the northern Plains. Radar and satellite data both show areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms becoming a bit better organized and focused across areas of central ND, with recent convective expansion noted farther south into areas of north-central SD. Much of this convection is currently elevated in nature, but is organizing in response to a strengthening southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts along with arrival of stronger DPVA associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough. MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are pooled up across northern SD and southern ND in close proximity to a west/east oriented warm front, with PWs generally of 1.5 to 1.7 inches. This thermodynamic environment will be conducive for additional expansion of well-organized convection off to south and east over the next several hours, and especially with a forecast increase in shear profiles and forcing which will support mixed convective modes inclusive of supercells. The latest Max-of-Max tool of the 12Z/18Z HREF solutions and multiple deterministic HRRR/RRFS runs strongly support rainfall rates maximizing well into the 2 to 3 inch/hour range, with even some spotty hourly totals higher than 3 inches with the stronger supercell thunderstorms and cell-mergers that take place going into the evening hours. Upscale growth into a strong MCS is expected, and by late this evening, some rainfall totals of 3 to 5+ inches are expected. This coupled with locally moist antecedent conditions and elevated streamflows will likely support scattered areas of flash flooding, with the more urbanized areas at greatest risk for impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-8-XbCvrulKwvljPBY5Tg3_74whrF72ip1NNu-Hy0MqnlsHPIyMfem1krri0Zmec91PN= wpfPaMx7rlfnSxyOdkZl3LQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC... LAT...LON 47699796 47519662 46919582 45969568 45099643=20 44719748 44629829 44789939 45339996 45749996=20 46599955 47199943 47559887=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .