Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1892
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 22:23:04

ACUS11 KWNS 052221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052221=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-060015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into far western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052221Z - 060015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist for a few hours from the
Black Hills into northwest Nebraska, with isolated large hail
possible.

DISCUSSION...Cool but moist air is pushing southward into the area,
with strong heating and a deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of this
front. Despite the cooler air mass, the combination of surface
convergence and increased dewpoints pushing into the steep-lapse
rate environment is aiding storm development currently. Mid to high
level westerlies of 30-50 kt in combination with the northeast
surface winds in the post-frontal regime should aid cellular storm
mode with isolated large hail. Therefore despite the overall weak
forcing regime, at least isolated hail is expected for a few hours,
but perhaps below threshold for a watch.

...Jewell/Gleason.. 08/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9jkq7KjpkJUHSscVCijw5ZxuwZdZCo16ao1j8hQyrfj2BuGAZgky3d_LFoGjPPOi4f-1-Acck=
woKKI55L8lZb12plCg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44130569 44420392 44380339 44280303 44110287 43810256
            43320233 42810239 42400291 42460348 42840437 43280578
            43520597 43780601 44130569=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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