Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1891
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 22:12:48

ACUS11 KWNS 052212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052212=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...western OK
Panhandle...and far northern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052212Z - 052345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist for the next couple
hours. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with
any sustained storms.

DISCUSSION...An isolated/discrete supercell has evolved over far
southeast CO -- on the eastern periphery of a deeply mixed boundary
layer/dryline feature. This storm is now impinging on richer
boundary-layer moisture to the east (lower/middle 60s dewpoints),
where moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy is in place. This,
combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, should continue to
support supercellular structure -- with a risk of large hail and
locally severe gusts. However, the small updraft size and weak
forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall storm longevity --
especially given some lingering inhibition at the top of the
boundary layer (see AMA 18Z observed sounding). For these reasons,
the severe risk is expected to remain localized and brief.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 08/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-k7EiQgWhVL2-GLVA79u6MiEKAEPt_jaRWh-LS2WJqGuKXEZJZI9OHaLSZCCCE6PKKyPtjqwb=
1D4bgMjJgf-cSAo9a0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36570266 36960285 37440262 37630222 37560178 37150121
            36360115 36190163 36300216 36570266=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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