Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 19:28:54 ACUS03 KWNS 051928 SWODY3 SPC AC 051927 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ....Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ....Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ...Grams.. 08/05/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .