Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 17:34:27

AWUS01 KWNH 051734
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-052333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0873
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...Southwestern Georgia...Eastern South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051733Z - 052333Z

Summary...Periodic repeating of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates could drive
scattered flash flooding as thunderstorm coverage expands over the
next few hours.

Discussion...Radar across the Southeast highlights a general
uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity over the last hour
along a quasi-stationary front. Within this regime, two areas of
focus were over Southwest Georgia and the South Carolina
Lowcountry, where cell mergers resulted in hourly estimated
rainfall rates in the 2-3"/hr range.

Cell coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours as a
very moist (2-2.2" PWATS), unstable (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and
uncapped airmass interacts with the front in the presence of
shortwave perturbations and persistent right entrance ascent.
Short term RAP forecasts suggest vertical shear profiles should
remain fairly weak (15-20 kts in the 0-6 km layer) to favor
loosely organized multicells which repeat over a similar area.
While this should limit overall individual cell longevity and
organization, the resultant cell mergers should favor periods of
2-3"/hr rainfall rates going forward this afternoon, as suggested
by the HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities.

The main limiting factor to the flash flooding threat this
afternoon are the high 1-3 hr FFGs in the 2.5-3"/hr range.
However, much of the 12z CAM suite highlights localized rainfall
amounts upwards of 3-6" through 0Z, which could drive additional
instances of scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-kb3il24QeaU9ocEL7K6BE3nw8EnomyMOqrVxHDh8P00BYaf5RgCkPqA6JesKAYBoPLN=
TKU5kOIVSK2FfzEGMZPR374$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34217997 33957915 33217923 32308040 31218185=20
            30938353 31108438 31658452 32368383 32848290=20
            33568100=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.