Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 07:41:48 AWUS01 KWNH 050741 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-051340- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0871 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 AM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 050740Z - 051340Z Summary...Scattered convection is drifting south to north across portions of Georgia and upstate South Carolina. Spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates were estimated within the convection as well.=20 Repeated moderate to heavy rainfall should result in an increased flash flood risk through the early morning hours (13Z/9a EDT). Discussion...Earlier tonight, modest increase of southerly 850mb flow atop a cool "wedge" front prompted scattered areas of moderate to heavy rainfall across the discussion area. These cells were likely driven by a combination of weak isentropic and orographic ascent given abundantly moist (2 inch PW) but marginally unstable airmass near the convection. Recent radar mosaic imagery and objective analyses depict newer, developing convective elements across central Georgia amid weak mid-level waves embedded in southwesterly flow aloft. This newer development suggests that light to moderate rain (with embedded heavier convective elements) should persist for several hours - perhaps extending past mid-morning across the discussion area.=20 Models (especially CAMs) are also supportive of this potential. The developing scenario appears to support widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts this morning, which should fall on already wet soils from antecedent rainfall. Flash flood potential should gradually increase, and may become more pronounced where heavier embedded convective elements (with rain rates approaching 1 inch/hr) can materialize. The heavier rainfall may ultimately be tied to the northwestward development of surface-based instability toward early morning, with 850mb southerly surface flow of around 20 knots aiding in this destabilization. Flash flooding is possible, and this risk may become more established with time as we progress toward the early morning hours. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97bkNmblh2lnyFgn2pEIhSU35UC-_Z-NdMsCqLKwML5fkXJTr5V_GBrHrBHmzm548I2d= Zn2aKLTdBgKlrNPZQlBWnv8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 35698257 35658146 35008102 34038151 32978237=20 32748362 33338419 34388353=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .