Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 05:34:34 ACUS01 KWNS 050534 SWODY1 SPC AC 050532 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ....Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .