Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 01:28:24

AWUS01 KWNH 050127
FFGMPD
MTZ000-050600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0868
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050124Z - 050600Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will tend to expand a bit more in coverage over the next few
hours. Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows convective clusters
over areas of central and eastern MT tending to expand further in
coverage as divergent flow aloft downstream of a well-defined
shortwave trough/circulation over ID interacts with a moderately
unstable airmass over the northern High Plains.

MLCAPE values are as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg with effective bulk
shear of as much as 30 to 50 kts. This coupled with localized
influence from orographics has been yielding an uptick in
multicell and supercell thunderstorm activity over the last couple
of hours.

An additional increase in the coverage of convection is expected
over the next few hours, with the potential for a few cell-mergers
possibly leading to at least some small scale MCS activity.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some of the supercell thunderstorms have
been very slow-moving which coupled with the potential for
cell-mergers will support concerns for as much as 2 to 3+ inches
of rain. Aside from the well-defined severe weather concerns with
these supercells, there may be some isolated instances of flash
flooding that accompany them over the next few hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!79LmNOjqeTlcs0Tj9NXMEN8DFvdVjKN3z33b2Hms34CZs_II8LRMO_FmBtm9NCjUzOdy=
_BDUaxInITpDJPpBSvi5FBU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON   49041014 49000779 48490589 47090471 45900471=20
            45210568 45220696 46450807 46830905 46991063=20
            47171198 47471276 48261306 48821183=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.