Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 05 2025 00:57:36

AWUS01 KWNH 050057
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-050455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0867
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050055Z - 050455Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving supercell thunderstorms this evening
may foster some additional isolated concerns for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W IR satellite imagery in conjunction with radar
shows a couple of supercell thunderstorm clusters over eastern CO
with rather slow and somewhat erratic cell-motions. The
environment is very unstable and highly sheared, with MLCAPE
values of 3000 to 4000+ J/kg and 50 to 60 kts of effective bulk
shear.

Rather moist low-level south-southeast flow into the central High
Plains this evening should continue to support the ongoing
convective clusters and there may be some additional expansion of
convection over the next few hours, before eventually sufficient
levels of boundary layer CIN take over to support a weakening of
the convection.

Aside from the severe weather hazards (most notably large hail)
with these supercells, the slow cell-motions will favor locally
heavy rainfall totals. Some rainfall rates of over 2 inches/hour
will be likely, with some additional storm totals of 3 to 4+
inches possible along the track of these supercells. Some isolated
areas of flash flooding will continue to be a threat at least for
the next few hours as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Xy5NaqHxZ1un_eNQPbYzVvzMJ9E3YyWcsFcyr0SBQI92a3pUJ1EMdsm3fbsS49nqKxO=
zuJ85-Eny-2aZ8ljEVJGBeA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39710272 39500219 38650200 37120218 36980316=20
            37470371 38610380 39440350=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.