Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1885
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 04 2025 20:36:11

ACUS11 KWNS 042036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042035=20
MTZ000-042230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042035Z - 042230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop through the
afternoon within the higher terrain. These will spread
north/northeast and produce severe winds and isolated large hail. A
watch is possible for parts of central/eastern Montana.

DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of cirrus overspreading the northern
Rockies, thunderstorms are beginning to initiate and deepen within
southwest into central Montana this afternoon. Additional cumulus
development is also noted along the weak surface trough. Greater
surface heating and moisture farther east has allowed MLCIN to erode
away from the terrain. It may take another 1-2 hours for MLCIN near
the terrain to erode. Over the remainder of the afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop and move north and east. Moisture
will have some tendency to mix out where surface heating occurs, but
should support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear is currently weak within
the region per VAD and 18Z TFX sounding data. However, this should
improve as the compact mid-level jet moves through the northern
Rockies this evening. Some supercell structures along with linear
segments will be possible. The main hazard will be severe wind gusts
given the large temperature-dewpoint spreads. Isolated large hail
may also occur, especially with supercells.

...Wendt/Smith.. 08/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!---7kegNsal5_J5b36HCHHdsepGPbaNfqjt4dOOOxs9J5zg_932inSkJmi5lYuxRq1A9V4Zr7=
31Q5s3DMbj2cbKugXo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47360770 46600759 45740843 45630890 45750988 46091102
            46501165 46981193 47521224 48111269 48551284 48841265
            49051247 49070934 48400881 48020837 47360770=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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