Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1884
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 04 2025 20:09:05

ACUS11 KWNS 042008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042007=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-042200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 042007Z - 042200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of very large hail, severe
gusts, and a brief tornado or two are possible across parts of the
central High Plains. A single or pair of Severe Thunderstorm Watches
will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered high-based CU/CBs have been noted from
the Laramie Mountains to Pikes Peak, with isolated development along
the South Platte and AR Valleys in eastern CO. Much of this initial
activity is occurring where surface dew point depressions of 35-45 F
are common. This suggests convection may struggle to rapidly
intensify, but should gradually strengthen into early evening.
Farther east, the western extent of low to mid 60s surface dewpoints
exists across far eastern CO, yielding much more ample MLCAPE. Most
guidance suggests at least one storm should become sustained in
southeast CO over the AR Valley and could be a longer-lasting
supercell given the environment. Otherwise, the higher-based
convection to the west and northwest will probably consist of
outflow-dominated supercell structures with a mix of sporadic large
hail and severe gusts.

...Grams/Smith.. 08/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7YsSUIMCJ-nIAIqybJTpZmpxWR0rpbe-xQKxT8ydiNF0j1_gE6BnFfdzUsccfNz4NBAuAB9Pf=
shXVD81-T8Mrojv7aw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37650346 39770418 40910460 42590500 42990461 43100391
            42710323 41340222 39960202 38280179 37150185 36940244
            37050295 37650346=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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