Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 04 2025 04:13:45

AWUS01 KWNH 040413
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041012-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0863
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 AM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...far southern Alabama, parts of the Florida
Panhandle, and far southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040412Z - 041012Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue through the
overnight hours, although this threat should remain isolated.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection continues to focus on a
surface frontal boundary located near the AL/FL border region just
south/southwest of Dothan.  Just ahead of this boundary, an
abundantly moist airmass (2+ inch PW values, 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
was sustaining deep convection, while weak kinematics and weak
mid-level shortwave troughs were aiding in ascent to support
slow-moving convection.  Areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were
noted immediately along the frontal boundary just west/southwest
of Dothan earlier.

Although recent convective trends indicate a downtick in cell
intensities and rain rates, the slow/near stationary movement of
the surface boundary and persistent instability along it should
provide a focus for additional thunderstorm potential through the
overnight hours.  Any re-intensification of convection along this
boundary is likely to result in 2+ inch/hr rain rates given the
moisture/kinematic fields in place.  FFG thresholds beneath the
cells are generally in the 2.5 inch/hr range, suggesting that
cells may need to reside over a location for greater than an hour
or produce rain over sensitive/low-lying areas for excessive
runoff and impacts.  The overall flash flood threat is isolated
and perhaps a bit conditional, but should continue through the
early morning hours (1030Z/6:30a EDT).

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8fjKNbMXZ43G9iG8qkPxp1HS6kHJNSmQIgmtsPq-IELF3f9QE76pc-KnX5cKvNoxW332=
dZlF5TtTfYTOjEZAZuDtf4o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31998539 31718366 30948355 30308511 30958734=20
            31828700=20

=3D =3D =3D
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