Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1882
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 04 2025 02:30:07

ACUS11 KWNS 040230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040229=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of OK/TX Panhandles into northwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570...

Valid 040229Z - 040400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe wind and hail will spread
south-southeastward through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of ongoing long-lived severe storms, the
environment remains favorable into parts of the OK and northern TX
Panhandles into northern OK, with moderate to strong instability,
favorable deep-layer shear, and elongated mid/upper-level
hodographs. An intense storm cluster that earlier moved through
Dodge City (where wind gusts of 70-85 mph were observed) has moved
into northwest OK and the eastern OK Panhandle. This cluster has a
relatively strong cold pool and still appears capable of producing
severe gusts as it moves south-southeastward. Strong updrafts along
the western flank of this cluster will also be capable of producing
large hail. Longevity of the severe threat with this cluster is
somewhat uncertain, given increasing CINH with time, though a
seasonably strong mid/upper-level jet may help to sustain the
cluster through late evening, with at least an isolated severe
threat.=20

Farther west, a long-lived supercell has moved into the western OK
Panhandle. The longevity of this cell may be relatively limited,
given a recent weakening trend and increasing downstream CINH.
However, large hail and locally gusty winds will remain possible for
as long as this cell persists.

...Dean.. 08/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-U27Groev6u-pCDPBp2pgk4quSYMEGs1ttJ1XXvZuRTLihT4s-UZ2rq408btPTp9QBvK-eguw=
dnr8c4G2gOXOnuNvOk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36950234 36720029 36919915 36809854 36089832 35389854
            35179939 35590027 35950116 36280209 36950234=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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