Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1881
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 23:21:49

ACUS11 KWNS 032321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032321=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-040045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southwest KS...far southeast CO...the OK
Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle...and northwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569...

Valid 032321Z - 040045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk, including the potential for very large
hail and severe wind gusts, will continue spreading southward across
southwest KS in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569. A downstream watch
should eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GLD/DDC depicts a complex
convective evolution across southwest KS this evening. Along the
western KS/eastern CO border, a long-lived discrete supercell is
tracking southward, which will continue to pose a risk of very large
hail, severe wind gusts, and brief tornadoes (given a
strong/established mesocyclone and unstable boundary layer). To its
east, an earlier long-lived supercell is evolving into a large
cluster of storms, with chaotic storm splits and new updrafts
developing along outflow. A long/straight hodograph (around 50 kt of
effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy should continue
to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very
large hail and severe gusts. However, the recent signs of upscale
growth into a large cluster may tend to favor an increasing risk of
severe wind gusts with time/southward extent.=20

In general, this activity will continue spreading southward across
southwest KS (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569), and eventually into
the OK/TX Panhandles and possibly northwest OK. While lingering
inhibition associated with previous convective overturning does cast
some uncertainty on the severe risk with southward extent, the
established storms and favorable deep-layer shear should support a
continued risk. Therefore, a downstream watch should eventually be
needed.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 08/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!87sngr1gU-tmZY1lMXHWU6k1uG1ZCFnNsjEtEFLZQp-IBbAKejX7T8wBwjlIwwwpaDsgmRADf=
fOQuZEBd_jRJWHyWmk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37970231 38390189 38580025 38399945 38009920 37209920
            36649950 36270003 36150100 36230200 36590247 37130254
            37970231=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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