Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 23:03:35 AWUS01 KWNH 032302 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-040430- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0861 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 701 PM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...West-central & Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle...Far Southwest GA... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 032300Z - 040430Z SUMMARY...Potential for slow moving, highly efficient thunderstorms likely to continue through early overnight period. Widely scattered rates of 2-2.5"/hr and overall totals to 4" in less than 3hrs remain possible for continued localized flash flooding risk. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a surface low/intersection just south of KPRN with stationary front extending eastward across southeast AL into far southern GA, with the effective cold front/stationary section dropping due south toward the western FL panhandle before finally angling southwest toward the Mouth of the Mississippi Delta. North of the low, strong/accelerating surface to 850mb northeasterly flow continues to advance with a well defined surface convergence boundary extending northward to KSEM toward KTCL and K1M4. While, low level moisture remains northeast of the boundary, the overall momentum is that of an effective cold front with strong moisture convergence along the leading edge, reducing northward into N AL. South and west, remaining unstable air of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists with a few stronger thunderstorms developing in proximity to Mobile Bay and Western FL Panhandle. The core of enhanced deeper layer moisture exists across S AL into SW GA with 2-2.25" total PWat values remaining in place; allowing for enhanced moisture loading to any developing thunderstorms. Rates of 2-2.5" are likely to be common with any scattered thunderstorms though an isolated, short-lived spot of up to 3"/hr can not be ruled out.=20 Deep layer flow is very weak at 5-10kts from the west or southwest toward the east or northeast; which is counter-directional from the strongest low level convergent flow along the boundaries. So with westward propagation, the overall movement is likely to be fairly stationary and likely more pulse-like, though duration may extend toward 2-3hrs with slowly reducing rates. As such, highly focused but also scattered incidents of 3-4" are possible in 1-3hrs. While soils can uptake higher rain totals, the sheer rates are possible to still overwhelm soils and result in localized incident or two of rapid inundation flooding. Coverage is more likely further south across S AL into W FL Panhandle; particularly near and southeast of the surface low, but a more widely scattered incident is possible through west-central AL into th early overnight period. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8bTeZbpE7P6mjbCKrRbNl1iTZfhbu8UY3niHBOM1A2XTyi8Sn1a2dfx1Z6TkMOXuEh4M= FTzJZPQp3yrU1paM0xg7rWo$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 33298802 33258725 32888687 32448641 32028541=20 31618454 30988450 30708513 30578604 30378676=20 30258749 30398812 30978826 31768835 32438827=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .