Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1880
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 21:45:52

ACUS11 KWNS 032144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032144=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE...far south-central
SD...and far northeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032144Z - 032345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible for the next several hours. A watch issuance is not
currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed
along/immediately ahead of a weak surface boundary/wind shift in
western/central NE, with additional cells developing farther north
along the boundary into far south-central SD. Diurnal
heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer (around middle 60s
dewpoints) and steep midlevel lapse rates have contributed to
moderate surface-based instability. Given the mesoscale focus for
storms and favorable buoyancy, sporadic severe wind gusts and
isolated large hail will be possible with storms evolving
along/south of the boundary. However, with weak large-scale forcing
for ascent and only modest deep-layer flow/shear (around 25 kt of
0-6 km shear per LNX VWP), the overall severe threat should remain
fairly disorganized/sporadic. Therefore, a watch issuance is not
currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 08/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8op8-Jz0T4gvm_BCXqMe59moRtx2fubIq7g2s2I9QA-kMqGPT9mij8Dobje4LiYkK7Zd78Iuo=
EUQOIzOS69b1sGIunE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41450232 41880160 42150104 42530042 43509962 43709932
            43609872 43159839 42679852 41639911 41109971 40490070
            40300186 40400262 40770312 41110315 41450232=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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