Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1879
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 20:50:00

ACUS11 KWNS 032049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032049=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-032245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032049Z - 032245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will track
south/southeast across western Kansas through early evening. Large
hail and strong gusts are possible with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
along the strong moisture gradient across northwest KS. Steep
midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km are aiding in moderate to strong
destabilization with MLCAPE values near 2000-2500 J/kg. While
vertical shear is somewhat modest across northwest KS, these storms
will encounter stronger effective shear magnitudes greater than 30
kt as they track south. These storms will also move into the more
moist boundary layer. As a result, additional convection or
intensification is possible with time and southward extent. The
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support
isolated large hail. Additionally, some guidance suggests clustering
could occur toward evening. If this scenario occurs, damaging wind
potential could increase as well.  Trends will be monitored for
possible watch issuance.

...Leitman/Smith.. 08/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!92gZGziYs1wIY8y6PI0d_kxotZb0d6I85-WW-W-r-qe06EvZA6qDyWveEXyvuqQw9gY3y0xYx=
J_pjobaWHerS89gsxw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   36999994 36940025 36970083 37050120 37320173 37970203
            39260205 39480176 39480093 39430032 38649987 37519966
            37119976 36999994=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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