Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1878
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 20:37:01

ACUS11 KWNS 032036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032036=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-032230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1878
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032036Z - 032230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will develop southeast from
northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles the next
few hours. A few instances of large hail and strong/severe gusts are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing this afternoon
within low-level convergence/upslope. Strong heating has allowed
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s F behind morning
convection and outflow. South/southeasterly low-level winds have
maintained mid-60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
This is fostering moderate destabilization, with 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE noted in 20z mesoanalysis. Vertically veering winds profiles,
with increasing northwesterly flow aloft is contributing to fairly
robust shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kts
apparent in regional VWP and mesoanalysis data. This environment
will support organized cells capable of producing large hail and
strong/severe gusts. Convective coverage remains uncertain, but
could increase with southward extent toward evening. This area is
being monitored for possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

...Leitman/Smith.. 08/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6OgRxrRX4NxqsoFWloS9MlLg81OboPkO5L2ZJNQbbII-sIbLE0mP3dgrSFniGnZbCvtRMjg2D=
LAAhvgtMZP6CxpDSTM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36710365 36850327 36890267 36840208 36510162 35960137
            35480144 34880158 34590192 34330246 34500305 34900334
            36290379 36710365=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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