Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1877
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 19:45:25

ACUS11 KWNS 031944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031944=20
ORZ000-CAZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...Southwestern into parts of eastern Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031944Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be capable of
strong to severe wind gusts and mainly small hail. A watch is not
expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus towers continue to deepen along and east of the
Cascades in southwest Oregon. This is in response to an approaching
shortwave trough. While these thunderstorms have been slow to move
off of the terrain thus far, continued heating in southern/eastern
Oregon will likely erode remaining MLCIN within the next 1-2 hours.
Additional storm development is likely through the afternoon as
well. With elevated convection associated with a small-scale
perturbation moving through northeast Oregon, development within the
Blue Mountains is less certain. However, additional heating during
the afternoon may still be sufficient for this to occur. Steep low
and mid-level lapse rates and 20-25 kts of shear (which will
marginally improve to near 30 kts with time) will result in
marginally organized storms capable of severe wind gusts.
Thermodynamic profiles will be conducive to mainly small hail, but
isolated hail near 1 inch could occur in the most intense storms.

...Wendt/Smith.. 08/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_HSoOvrQAlgl0G2-HmyPskh43d_FWhsPo5bHrG6hct7qxfKrM3VYRHjsNomQqlkicfj5xn7H-=
Dt7BEhBRhH6T6lKIik$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

LAT...LON   41912213 42982218 43592186 44752034 45191927 44981859
            44541791 44361754 43451732 42571803 41822134 41912213=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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