Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 08:04:08

AWUS01 KWNH 030803
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-031402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0859
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030802Z - 031402Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues for several more hours
across eastern South Dakota and vicinity.  Areas of high rain
rates (exceeding 2 inches/hr) remain possible in spots, which
could lead to inundation.

Discussion...Convection has increased in coverage in tandem with
1) speed convergence on the nose of strengthened 850mb flow and 2)
presence of updrafts on the eastern edge of a steep mid-level
lapse rate plume across much of South Dakota and Nebraska.  In
addition to the aforementioned meso-to-synoptic features, a
remnant MCV/shortwave trough centered a few miles east of Aberdeen
has enabled development of focused banding of convection in areas
near/north of Huron, SD.  The bands of convection were also
oriented favorably for both training and low-level convergence,
and has led to spots of 3-5 inch rainfall totals tonight (2 inches
falling in an hour).  At least localized flash flooding appears
probable with this activity given the rain rates and
banding/training.

The overall scenario supporting flash flooding will change very
little over the next 3-6 hours.   Models suggest that the position
of the MCV/shortwave trough will only shift slowly to the east
through 14Z.  Meanwhile, low-level flow and speed convergence will
remain enhanced across the discussion area, with only slight
weakening/veering depicted per SPC mesoanalyses.  Convection will
remain focused in a localized manner, with occasional 2 inch/hr
rain rates continuing on an isolated basis.  Additional 3-4 inch
totals cannot be completely ruled out in this regime.  Flash flood
potential remains high, albeit isolated and confined to locales
that receive banded convection through 14Z/9a CDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8dcUwPTwtJfqv35xTv5T6HhUPlQEpGjdW-7c-qvxXd-PMTmo4ByRGWJsM-i2YM1-LtTZ=
A_B18R9bSD09HffJhiHS_fo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   46389807 45659661 43769612 42879690 43319848=20
            45589942 46219886=20

=3D =3D =3D
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