Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 05:44:13

AWUS01 KWNH 030543
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-031142-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0858
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
142 AM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Alabama and western
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030542Z - 031142Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues - especially from
central Alabama and areas near the Alabama/Georgia state line.=20
Slow-moving downpours will continue to promote 1-3 inch/hr rain
rates through 11Z/7a EDT.

Discussion...Deep moist convection continues to focus along a
surface trough axis extending from near a weak surface low near
Montgomery north-northeastward into the southern Appalachians near
Chattanooga.  Convergence along this axis was promoting persistent
thunderstorm development within an abundantly moist, unstable
airmass (containing 2+ inch PW values).  Kinematics/steering flow
aloft are weak and favor slow storm motions that, when combined
with efficient rainfall processes, are prompting areas of 1-3
inch/hr rain rates especially from near Birmingham to near
Anniston.  Heavier rainfall was also developing between Atlanta
and Macon too per latest radar mosaic imagery.

The overall scenario should change little over the next 3-6 hours.
 Subtle boundary layer cooling may act to gradually weaken
updrafts, but persistent confluence should continue to promote and
sustain at least isolated convection.  Rain rates beneath the
dominant cells and cell mergers will continue to exceed 2
inches/hr at times, which should readily exceed FFG thresholds
across the discussion area.  Additional instances of flash
flooding are expected through 11Z/7a EDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!40pyIrS0zbOjYQlDjpszysz2U4nT0q7ND-e0MKhyvio6K1pD_kEnksY5h4oac3mIw_LO=
_thNBQJADvU1qDAfde7V76c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   35228497 34508401 33028372 32388359 32308470=20
            32518690 33288710 34548633=20

=3D =3D =3D
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