Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 01:25:43 AWUS01 KWNH 030125 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-030700- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0856 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 924 PM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO...Southwest KS...Far Northeast NM...OK Panhandle...Northwest TX Panhandle... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030125Z - 030700Z SUMMARY...Clusters increasing to MCS with increasing moisture flux may pose increasing intense rainfall risk (rates to 1.75"+/hr) with some back-building/training potential. Spotty totals of 2-3" may result in possible flash flooding.=20=20 DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a strong shortwave rapidly pressing eastward across northeast CO at the nose of strong 80kt 250mb westerly jet over UT, entering W CO attm. Strong DPVA forcing amplified by strong divergence is strengthening the wave but also inducing a strong 850mb response south of the Lake Palmer divide and LLJ is starting to increase/respond in strength as well as backing toward the initial convective clusters. Strong moisture flux convergence has recently enhanced convective development with rapid cooling and anvil expansion to the cluster across Prowers county. CIRA LPW suite shows 60 Tds at the surface to 850mb layer with nose from the SE to the cluster; veering from south to north in the 850-700 along the CO/KS line and 700-500mb axis from central NM to SE CO resulting in deep layer confluence supporting 1.5" total PWat along and east of the developing 850mb low/convective cluster. As such, elevated large hail production will slowly transition to lowering cloud bases and increasing rainfall efficiency over the coming hours, likely to be maintained by the strengthening LLJ and moisture flux convergence; eventually resulting in rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr Cluster will likely expand into a larger MCS. Deep layer steering at the anti-cyclonic rotor of the mid to upper-level jet and northeast edge of Southwest US ridge will further support south-southeastward propagation with slight slowing and upwind flank redevelopment. Additionally, with 700mb flow veering to the southeast; isentropic ascent along the rear inflow jet of the developing MCS has potential for elevated redevelopment within the wake of the main core of the expanding MCS across southeastern CO into the overnight hours. Slow right turning to the mean flow is expected resulting in some convergence/merger and slowing of forward propagation across SE CO/SW KS...and may result in a spot or two of 2-3" totals resulting in localized flash flooding... Northeast NM & TX/OK Panhandles... Uncertainty remains with interaction with isolated cells, becoming a cluster across Union county, NM. There is potential for some disruption of flow to the developing cluster further northeast and may continue to maintain heavy rainfall; slow cell motions that have already resulted in localized flash flooding southwest of Clayton, NM. Cells having some interaction with the western edge of the LLJ, may further propagate eastward and toward merging with the northern complex across the OK/NW TX panhandle but will likely maintain a flash flooding risk given deeper layer steering remains convergent and slower nearer to the mid-level ridge axis across the Southwest. As such, have included areas of the Panhandles into the area of concern for continued possible flash flooding. =20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TaQNivmftGdUCFychblJ5daenrgdAOxB2cmygh38wvpNpnM2oNBa-PpiHaZzTW73Pk_= K0FKNGtmug0ciB0fWNqI2pc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39060258 38680109 37750003 36660016 35750086=20 35530250 36040360 37060416 38120442 38850415=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .