Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 01:00:27 ACUS01 KWNS 030100 SWODY1 SPC AC 030058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ....Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ....Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ...Lyons.. 08/03/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .