Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1874
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 03 2025 00:47:55

ACUS11 KWNS 030047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030047=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...northeast NM...OK and
northern TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566...567...

Valid 030047Z - 030215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566, 567
continues.

SUMMARY...A large-hail threat will continue in the short term, with
some increase in the severe-wind threat possible with time.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have recently intensified across
southeast CO, as high-based convection and attendant outflow has
encountered a more unstable and less capped environment. Steep lapse
rates, MLCAPE near/above 2000 J/kg, and moderate effective shear
within the midlevel northwesterly flow regime will support a
short-term threat for large to very large hail with these cells,
along with some potential for isolated strong to severe gusts and
possibly a tornado. Storm mergers and expanding outflow are expected
to eventually result in some upscale growth, which would be aided by
a modestly strengthening low-level jet through the evening. This
evolution could lead to a greater coverage of severe-wind potential
with time.

Farther south, multiple strong to severe cells have persisted across
Union County, NM. While CINH remains downstream, one or more of
these storms may eventually move into the western OK/TX Panhandles
with at least a localized severe hail/wind threat, especially if any
clustering can occur.=20

New watch issuance is possible into more of the OK/TX Panhandles
later this evening, especially if an organized MCS evolves across
southeast CO and moves southeastward, as suggested by recent
short-term CAM guidance.

...Dean/Gleason.. 08/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5N8XID21BUHDBioZwSlseqDhJwfV7oL2HwYpK_7F56TttVgZgdm0bjkJ9GsVU9VLWqpn3dIWd=
emzSX58cFfayGJ_9yI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38890255 38760175 38220072 36800072 35900126 35440171
            35320240 35430329 36310391 38550398 38890255=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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