Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 02 2025 23:10:43 AWUS01 KWNH 022310 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-030500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0854 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 709 PM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Areas affected...Southern AL...Southern GA...Northern Florida... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 022310Z - 030500Z SUMMARY...Risk for widely scattered flash flooding continues for a few more hours as slow, highly efficient thunderstorms seek out remaining instability pockets along the deep layer frontal zone. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and RAP analysis suggests deep layer frontal zone remains stationary across southern GA back into S AL but has become harder to delineate as initial round of thunderstorms has resulted in larger scale over-turning. Outflow from the initial convection has increased moisture convergence along the southern edge of the older convective debris across southern GA providing sufficient directional and modest speed convergence to trigger additional thunderstorm development. Air temps remain in the low 90s with ample deep layer moisture, Td in the mid 70s with core of CIRA LPW (Sfc-850mb) along the northern Florida boarder with AL/GA with values over 1". Given 850-500 moisture axis resides generally in the same vicinity (if a tad north), overall moisture remains in the 2.25-2.5" total PWat range. Given deep warm cloud layers (14-16Kft) and solid updraft vigor (given 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE); efficient warm cloud processes will keep the potential of 2-3"/hr rates (higher in shorter time frames).=20 However, unlike earlier this afternoon, convective clusters have formed along the southern interface/outflow boundary and reside in deeper fairly unidirectional, if weak steering flow to allow for some potential training/repeating over the next few hours before instability is exhausted or slowly diminishing after sunset. Some southerly surface to boundary layer flow may allow for some recharge of unstable air prior to the arrival of the next cluster. As such, spots of 3-5" totals will remain possible through the early overnight period (though bulk of heaviest rates/totals should be over the next few hours). Hydrologically, sandier soils are likely to uptake much of the heavy rainfall but the shear rates of 2.5-3"/hr are likely still too much even for best infiltration and 3-6hr totals locally of 3-5" are also at the edge of FFG exceedance and as such, localized flash flooding will remain possible and, of course more likely near larger urban centers.=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dJ2GlGw2lni8IAFmoY1H3dcW7CpHCMVOOoTUYjuwX86RSiHPjHFdZPBYPwu9-nDPyuD= 2UG7BTWA7xSvLjBrpVOO-SA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 32128764 31848490 31568263 31198145 30718136=20 30048126 29898187 30138333 30398455 30608543=20 30908728 31248802=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .