Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1872
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 02 2025 19:36:54

ACUS11 KWNS 021936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021936=20
OKZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Areas affected...southwest NE...eastern CO...northeast NM...and
western portions of the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021936Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
couple of hours. Developing storms will pose a risk for large hail
and severe wind gusts by late afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed for portions of the central High Plains vicinity by
21z.

DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing over higher terrain and within
low-level upslope/confluent flow from northern NM into CO and WY.
Mid/upper flow has increased, with 30-40 kt 0-6 km shear noted in
latest mesoanalysis and regional 88-D VWP data. Backing
south/southeasterly low-level winds are maintaining low to mid 60s F
dewpoints across western KS into far eastern CO, with lower
dewpoints into the 50s F elsewhere. Steep midlevel lapse rates were
noted in morning RAOBs and latest forecast soundings, supporting
ongoing moderate destabilization as surface temperatures continue to
warm under mostly sunny skies.=20

Initial convection moving off higher terrain will likely remain
cellular amid elongated/straight hodographs. Thermodynamic and
kinematic profiles will support large hail potential, possibly with
a few hail stones up to 3.0 inch diameter. Strong heating and
boundary layer mixing, with weaker low-level flow evident in VWP
data and forecast soundings, also will support strong/severe gusts.
As convection shifts east with time toward the CO/KS border
vicinity, clustering/linear development is expected later this
evening amid a strengthening low-level jet within the axis of deeper
boundary layer moisture. Damaging wind potential will increase as
this occurs.

...Leitman/Smith.. 08/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9nMI2P2JaLhEk6D-_y04IsrNPQPNmNPlehJ5q9KfjblcIwelqvgfUzVq85fGraFIjrr8RWmhE=
bVm4Ah5d7_wePpmu_o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36800435 38820446 40510442 41300429 41520387 41610334
            41480291 41050235 40320201 39520191 36780195 35990209
            35480297 35670369 36140413 36800435=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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