Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 02 2025 17:23:30

AWUS01 KWNH 021723
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-022320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0851
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
122 PM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Areas affected...Southern Georgia into Far Northeast Florida and
Far East-Central Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021720Z - 022320Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along a
stationary front, with hourly rainfall rates locally over 3"/hr.
Scattered flash flooding is possible, mainly over urban areas,
given the mostly high FFG and sandy soils in the region.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-East satellite and radar imagery depicts
thunderstorms beginning to develop across southern Georgia near a
stationary front and within a highly moist atmosphere of 2.1-2.4"
PWs (above the 90th percentile). Low level flow across the region
is rather weak close to the stationary front, with stronger
westerly 850mb flow (about 10 kts) across northern Florida. Higher
in the column at 700mb the westerly flow becomes more uniform and
is nearly parallel to the instability gradient across southern
Georgia. This flow will allow for developing thunderstorms over
the next several hours to be either slow-moving or repeat in an
east-west axis. Additionally, rainfall rates within storms are
expected to locally exceed 3"/hr at times as SBCAPE around 4000
J/kg combine with the high precipitable water values. Thunderstorm
activity is also expected to redevelop through the late afternoon
and early evening hours as an upper trough located across the
central Gulf Coast slowly meanders eastward and provides
additional lift over the Southeast.

Fortunately, this part of the country contains sandy soils and
high FFG, with 3-hr FFG between 3-4". However, even with these
soil conditions the 12Z HREF depicts scattered 20-40% chances for
1-hr QPF exceeding 3" and widespread 50-80% neighborhood
probabilities for 6-hr QPF exceeding 3". CAMs highlight the
potential for maximum rainfall totals to locally reach 5-7"
through 00Z tonight. Given this, scattered flash flooding is
possible where the most intense rainfall rates occur and in urban
settings.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6NE1Qxr5PjG2pxETaWVVS-tihgaUrLvrIMN7A0jjqPYqZsqc53_oGWjD_hDjuL72n8dw=
6pwrFkM0KxwvXANXtTObPRc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32968440 32328261 31778134 31058102 30298112=20
            30148171 30518312 31058442 31588511 32258543=20
            32878524=20

=3D =3D =3D
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