Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 02 2025 03:55:56

AWUS01 KWNH 020355
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-020754-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0849
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...eastern/southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020354Z - 020754Z

Summary...A small convective complex was producing heavy rainfall
that should continue to pose a flash flood risk through 07Z or so.

Discussion...A well organized, yet slow-moving convective complex
was producing several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates near Santa
Rosa, NM.  The complex was migrating southward into an airmass
characterized by around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3 inch PW values,
supporting a continuation of deep moist convection and heavy
rainfall.  The complex was also occurring atop areas of 1 inch/hr
FFG thresholds that were being readily exceeded at times.  Areas
of excessive runoff are likely in the near term - especially in
low-lying and/or sensitive areas in the path of the complex.

Both observations and CAMs are supportive of this complex
migrating southward toward the Roswell area and other parts of
southeastern New Mexico through at least 07Z/1a MDT.  The well
organized nature of the complex and low-level southeasterly inflow
of moist/unstable air are also supportive factors for southward
persistence of the complex.  Downstream soil conditions are
saturated from prior rainfall and FFG thresholds are around 1
inch/hr and should be readily at times.  Flash flooding remains
possible in this scenario.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4oFrDWVSBfT0yKKCToRkXwNKi9j8XHo0fcrWisT94wHmgV-_4KRj5kY-qsJWxQpPWo5g=
onwxWRK70Gqi-QNMMEiYLQc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35530436 34560301 32520321 32170488 32990612=20
            34210635 35490571=20

=3D =3D =3D
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