Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 02 2025 01:03:33 ACUS01 KWNS 020102 SWODY1 SPC AC 020101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ....Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ....Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ....Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ...Lyons.. 08/02/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .