Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1869
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 02 2025 00:54:49

ACUS11 KWNS 020054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020054=20
COZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020054Z - 020230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe wind and hail will continue for
another hour or so across southeastern Colorado.

DISCUSSION...Two fairly persistent/organized clusters of severe
storms continue advancing eastward across the southeastern CO Plains
this evening -- both generally focused along intersecting outflow
boundaries. Rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) and
steep deep-layer lapse rates are yielding a corridor of
weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy, which should continue to
support the maintenance of these storm clusters for another hour or
so -- especially given around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (per nearby
VWP data). While these storms will continue to pose a risk of severe
wind gusts and isolated large hail in the near-term, the overall
risk still appears too spatially/temporally limited for a watch (see
DDC 00Z sounding).

...Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4KubFoY4ZGwiaEQndmqDhSV1IAGdp09P6N0iUbrhMe_ACGyYJRXXczcgzB5HdfVWvRZqdKZmQ=
0SFQ1TcBJpX8jx8lJM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37600334 38480357 38830351 39290315 39380258 39120210
            38360218 37590224 37130260 37120295 37600334=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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