Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 02 2025 00:52:56

AWUS01 KWNH 020052
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0848
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
851 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...in and near the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020050Z - 020450Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should
persist into tonight.  Before they fade, hourly rain amounts to 3"
and local amounts to 5" remain possible, which could lead to
isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Thunderstorms appear to be trying to consolidate
across northeastern TX as of late, per radar reflectivity trends.=20
A cold pool has become established between Lampasas and Mexia,
which is acting to constrict the pattern from the southwest.   ML
CAPE is 2000-3500 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear is ~20 kts.=20
Precipitable water values are around ~2.25".

The guidance suggests that the convective pattern should continue
to slowly restrict as instability erodes and CIN eventually sets
in around 05z.  Until then, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local
totals to 5" remain possible, which could lead to isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding, particularly in
urban areas.=20

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-meIUwJOlLpPAR92nBf1HWaJ3LLsraZmXk58DuMfSColub8jcyVn4Z7_eMlqDj54ienI=
SBxDShueQ-WCPzrsmquLwPc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34339629 34189509 34239397 33749365 32259364=20
            31119447 31219533 31799623 33169729=20

=3D =3D =3D
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