Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1868
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 23:37:49

ACUS11 KWNS 012337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012337=20
SDZ000-WYZ000-020100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...Northeast WY into western SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565...

Valid 012337Z - 020100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe-storm threat will continue into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A supercell that earlier developed near an MCV across
northwest SD has evolved into a small bowing segment, with recent
vigorous updraft development noted along its southern flank. With
some increase in the low-level jet expected with time this evening,
this small cluster may persist and grow in size, with some potential
for supercell development along its southern periphery. Strong to
severe gusts remain possible, especially with the bowing portion of
the cluster. If any supercells can develop within the cluster or
along the southern flank, some enhancement to low-level SRH (from
both the MCV and the nocturnally increasing low-level jet) would
support a threat for a tornado, in addition to large hail.=20=20

Farther southwest, attempts at isolated storm development continue
over the Black Hills, and an isolated supercell or two could evolve
with time. Meanwhile, storms have gradually increased in coverage
and intensity through late afternoon across parts of central into
northeast WY. While deep-layer flow/shear is somewhat weaker
compared to areas farther east, steep low/midlevel lapse rates and
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg could support a few strong cells or
clusters into this evening capable of isolated hail and strong to
severe gusts. WW 565 was recently expanded across parts of northeast
WY in order to cover this threat.

...Dean.. 08/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!95xZczHwcLp0HKyBXQThBgabKgPxdjuN22UixIlfxAPIIrN8NAch-2qssWJfQwJrZrpjc_FoY=
IYW_DHVjVO3x8OZLd8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   44860682 44980326 45930256 45860106 45450073 44700065
            43590254 43080506 43020560 42820661 43090689 43740673
            44380678 44860682=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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