Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1867
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 22:59:18

ACUS11 KWNS 012259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012258=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1867
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast WY...the southwestern NE
Panhandle...and northeast CO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 564...

Valid 012258Z - 020100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk should continue increasing across Tornado
Watch 564, especially with east-southeastward extent into this
evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes all remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and IR satellite imagery show an increase
in thunderstorm intensity across far southeast WY -- generally
focused along an outflow boundary that moved into the area. These
storms are now impinging on an axis of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints
and steep low/midlevel lapse rates. This moderately unstable air
mass (around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per CYS
VWP and mesoanalysis) should support continued intensification of
these storms, especially as they continue east-southeastward into
this evening. While strong outflow generation may continue to
promote clustering/localized upscale growth (with a related severe
wind risk), the favorable deep-layer shear/buoyancy and sufficient
boundary-layer helicity (around 130 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) will also
support embedded supercell structures -- capable of producing
sporadic large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes.

...Weinman.. 08/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_3qtApo4gGRd5VFKzCwpkqcnXaYRpyElfaApv-CFTXyP8VRtW-YFpwsySWZLkE5tgaZkV71Qz=
J0imkZBYw_3f1IVn88$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41310522 41580424 41990406 41990365 41790293 41440262
            41000279 40640330 40440416 40570474 41020529 41310522=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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