Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 22:36:24

AWUS01 KWNH 012236
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-020235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0846
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012235Z - 020235Z

Summary...Periods of cell training and cell mergers should keep a
threat of at least scattered instances of flash flooding for
another 3-4 hours across portions of the Carolinas.

Discussion...Convection that formed across the southern
Appalachians is forward propagating south to south-southeast
through the Piedmont which has led to some increase of coverage of
thunderstorms across portions of SC.  Across southeast NC, there
has been southward push of somewhat organized convection this
afternoon.  In both areas, there have been some hourly radar
estimates up to 3" of rain.  ML CAPE ranges from 1500 J/kg in the
cold pool over northeast SC to close to 4000 J/kg ahead of it
across portions of southern SC.  Up to 3000 J/kg of ML CAPE lies
near the front near the central SC/NC border.

The guidance suggests about another 4 hours or so of thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall are expected before the convection starts to
wane and/or move offshore into the western subtropical Atlantic.=20
The cold pool pushing southwest across SC could act as a source
for cell mergers between convection that forms near it and
incoming storm from the northwest.  Until it does so, hourly
amounts to 3" with local amounts to 5" are possible, which would
be most problematic in urban areas and any areas saturated from
the past week of heavy rainfall in and near portions of northeast
SC.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_egx9-JpjXmsJxzyCG_nIiqlO9Lry_gwcuptWJt61KNkOwG9yJncD7vVlskH0Xm7cG6p=
_ovvqwxvLHiZ3mi1Aw-lhTs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35937858 35117829 35117705 34877613 34527647=20
            34557698 34307746 33837785 33717851 33097909=20
            32538001 32308064 33238145 34608236 34878113=20
            35468028=20

=3D =3D =3D
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