Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1865
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 21:51:22

ACUS11 KWNS 012150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012150=20
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast Colorado into
northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012150Z - 012345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will spread eastward into this
evening, posing a risk of isolated large hail and locally severe
wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are
being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving along the
I-25 corridor in east-central/southeast CO into northeast NM, which
are likely being aided by a passing upper-level jet streak evident
in water-vapor imagery and VWP data. While instability is marginal
along the higher terrain, steep deep-layer lapse rates and an
elongated upper-level hodograph will support isolated large hail
with the ongoing high-based storms as they advance eastward across
the I-25 corridor. With time, storms will move eastward into an
increasingly warm/moist air mass over the CO Plains. Here, higher
surface-based buoyancy and an elongated/straight mid/upper-level
hodograph (around 25-30 kt of effective shear) should favor a couple
loosely organized eastward-moving clusters, capable of producing
severe wind gusts and isolated hail. Given the modest deep-layer
shear, storms may tend to be outflow dominant, and a watch is not
currently expected at this time.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 08/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8gdcDlQImaZ0fyzIFDY3_TdUQ9ZLn1S54zGWIQ3x-vuP0MCu5rxRI7ZjBbwx6KsjKbEBJMXr4=
Lan8-mA3RuT0PmFTdc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36580581 37090566 37600510 38460497 39100476 39530460
            39690434 39650361 39470289 38800263 37020293 35500360
            35350407 35310511 35560553 36580581=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.