Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 21:29:24

AWUS01 KWNH 012129
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-020327-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0845
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
528 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...south-central CO & northeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012127Z - 020327Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing near portions
of the CO/NM border.  Hourly rain amounts to 2" and local amounts
to 4" are possible over an area with somewhat compromised soils.=20
Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are trying to concentrate
near portions of the CO/NM border, with a recent flash flood
warning issues near Trinidad CO.  Precipitable water values of
0.6-1" lie in the region.  ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg exists.=20
Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts.

Storms should be organized and tend to drop southeast to south on
the back side of a shortwave trough quasi-parallel to 1000-500 hPa
thickness and ML CAPE lines.  Should a complex congeal, the
guidance suggests that it shouldn't be particularly large.  A
broad area of northeast NM has seen 300-600% of their average
seven day rainfall, so soils should be somewhat compromised.  As
cells have managed hourly rain amounts to 2" thus far, see no
reason why such behavior shouldn't continue through late this
afternoon into this evening.  Hourly amounts to 2" with local
amounts to 4" where cells merge, train, or mesocyclones manage to
form and track could lead to scattered flash flood concerns.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6lFfA8QJkQIlBedDRN4Qk7XgBG-zoQR_p_sMWm1l-BreV8dRFpMrsXF5ck_ZWNBpIV6O=
43Vr5PWa-6IhMKMmkEAyUEw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37990466 36540338 35080332 34440484 34780585=20
            35800661 36920669 37680631=20

=3D =3D =3D
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