Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 21:12:17 ACUS48 KWNS 012112 SWOD48 SPC AC 012110 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. ...Broyles.. 08/01/2025 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .