Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 21:05:50

AWUS01 KWNH 012105
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020304-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0844
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...near the WY/CO/NE border junction

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012104Z - 020304Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms moving through the High Plains
of southeast WY and northeast CO should grow upscale somewhat over
the next few hours.  Hourly rain amounts to 1.5" with local totals
to 3" could cause isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Upslope flow has pooled moisture across the High
Plains.  Now that CIN is reducing, showers and thunderstorms are
developing and moving into the High Plains of southeast WY over
the top of a northwest-southeast convergence zone.  Precipitable
water values are 0.75-1".  ML CAPE is 1000-3000 J/kg.  Effective
bulk shear is 30-40 kts.

The concern is that convection grows in scale as CIN zeroes out in
the next couple of hours, causing a convective cluster to form and
drop southeast with time which could have an embedded mesoscale or
two.  The ingredients available support hourly rain amounts to
1.5" and local totals to 3" where cells train, merge, or
mesocyclones form.  As the region has had areas of 300-600% of
their weekly average precipitation, soils should be somewhat
compromised.  Isolated to widely scattered occurrences of flash
flooding are possible.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-tfzIavx4X1IfzLYFWEs_Ob3TWHhKdAA87ay69v_PoGPw9nPyxXpsD2n2wiTAAV87AQZ=
WECHqJMVqF_QqB7iD1wajaU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   42880667 42760509 42270397 41160237 40430201=20
            39510234 39730426 41520641=20

=3D =3D =3D
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