Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1864
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 20:57:53

ACUS11 KWNS 012057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012057=20
SDZ000-012300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...parts of northwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012057Z - 012300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The evolution of a supercell into a small organized
cluster appears possible through 5-7 PM MDT, accompanied by a risk
for severe hail, then increasing potential for strong to severe
surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Convection has undergone notable recent intensification
within an isolated cell on the southwestern flank of a remnant slow
moving MCV.  This is embedded with generally weak deep-layer mean
flow on the northern periphery of broad mid-level ridging.  However,
forcing for ascent and modest shear associated with veering profiles
with height, near a focused area of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, may support the continuing evolution of a supercell
to an upscale growing organized cluster into this evening.  This
will be aided by continuing inflow of relatively moist air
characterized by moderate CAPE, within lee surface troughing
southwest of Buffalo through areas west-southwest of Mobridge.

...Kerr/Smith.. 08/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4d5i2GabgAvVYLWrjFX2BTkbezO7oU_gRV4zLMxlztk51Ni9m_71JPUDPK3BBARSAiLPdUCUt=
SoGSVrNNh99PwiQkEE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON   45370332 45530284 45260173 44960251 45160332 45370332=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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