Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1863
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 19:52:29

ACUS11 KWNS 011951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011951=20
KSZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of
western Nebraska and adjacent southwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011951Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development, including
the evolution of a few supercells, appears probable through 3-5 PM
MDT.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe
weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of an upper jet nosing inland of the central
California coast through the Great Basin, modest surface troughing
is slowly deepening to the lee of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies.=20
Low-level moisture return on southerly flow to the east of the
trough axis is ongoing, and contributing to substantive
destabilization in the presence of steep lower/mid-tropospheric
lapse rates.  This now appears to include moderately large CAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg, where deep-layer shear (mostly due to
pronounced veering of winds with height, in the presence of
otherwise weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow) appears at least
marginally conducive to organized convection, including supercells.

High-based convection has been initiating and increasing in coverage
near and west of the Colorado Front Range through the Laramies the
past couple of hours.  Gradually, as mid/upper support for this
activity shifts to the east of the higher terrain, scattered
thunderstorm activity will begin to develop east of the higher
terrain into the stronger potential instability across the adjacent
plains.  As this occurs, substantive intensification appears
probable, including the evolution of a few supercells posing a risk
for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado or two by 21-23Z.

...Kerr/Smith.. 08/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4sguGecrZ6B9r92o0oExBMsGbUQ1xkwatyga_X0tKbX9-aIb2Ckd8UYoK455sXtyA-eciHGi9=
P_i8wCtDEM0zd0pBFQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43190420 42870349 41300299 39730202 38690302 38990361
            39970331 40430431 40920475 41440499 42250485 42570510
            43190420=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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