Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 19:22:16 AWUS01 KWNH 011921 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020128- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0843 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast TX and southeast OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011920Z - 020128Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage over the next several hours. Hourly amounts to 3" with local amounts to 5" are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely scattered occurrences of flash flooding, particularly in urban areas. Discussion...Organized but forward propagating convection has been moving along the Red River of the South as of late, with hourly rain amounts to 2.5" per radar estimates. Clouds are becoming more convective across portions of southeast OK, with some dying elevated convection from early this morning near the northern AR/OK border. Water vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance aloft across the region. Precipitable water values are 2-2.25". ML CAPE 500-2000 J/kg, and CIN is continuing to reduce per SPC mesoanalyses. Area soundings from 12z & 18z show effective bulk shear of ~20 kt in this area. The guidance has little concept of what's going on near the Red River of the South currently. Overall, the expectation is for convection to expand as CIN reduces to zero in the coming few hours. There should be some additional increase in instability in the meantime. Given what's ongoing near the Red River of the South, additional areas of organized convection are possible. The available ingredients suggest hourly amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" being possible, which is more reflective in the 06z REFS signal than that of the 12z HREF. Activity should have a tendency to drop or redevelop southeast with time ahead of a cold front making some progress through Central TX. While much of the region has been dry this past week, there are localized areas of far southeast OK and the Red River of the South that have seen heavy rainfall. Overall, believe the flash flood risk is higher in urban areas. Model uncertainty and recent poor performance of the mesoscale guidance keeps this MPD in the Possible category. Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-9WU6sEBILMRlsbg2VLD2QY88pUEG7M6fDp5PCKV_i1pDCBgaHx7yol2bBBfrLpOlkBB= aRphN8_PESH6wD1Oe4mcM2M$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35469555 34959452 32639441 30899608 31349837=20 32579717 33749809 34309831 35089687=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .